bearly there

Been out of the loop for a while...got back from the relaxing world of Trini...got the flu...realized i still had to work for a living...

it took bear stearns overnight evaporation to spur me into actually posting something again...posting something lazily, becuase this is all i'm going to write about it...i'm a bit concerned about the speed of the collapse which makes me wonder how solid the foundation is of this mortgaged house of cards...but read for yourself...

on d edge

Greenspan thinks we are 'on the edge of a recession'. He thinks housing has to hit bottom.

Here's what's going to happen:

The fed will contiue to aggressively cut interest rates. the thinking is, as long as housing prices are falling, then inflation is not a concern. once housing does bottom out and shows signs of stabilizing (maybe within 2 to 3 years) then the fed will fight a fight it knows how to fight...the inflationary fight.

The Fed will clamp down on credit availability in an effort to snuff out inflation. This will require a major tick up in the interest rates.

An increase in inflation from primarily food and fuel, and the corresponding increase in interest rates will solve the problem of excess liquidity (too many dollars floating around) as well provided those holding dollars with a greater return on their dollar holdings (China).

In this scenario, inflation is the fed's friend, and it will do nice work of bringing the the higher costs of house ownership down.

It should play out relatively painlessly for most. However, here are potential pitfalls:

• large holders of dollars stand to lose through the loss of purchasing power (prices are going up but collecting less on your cash position). Have some cash to be flexible. Cash is essentially stored energy which you have to put to use. If you are counting on cash as a source of income you may want to consider a part time job.
• Hold some commodities to offset the loss of purchasing power of your dollars. commodities have had quite a run, and i would be hesitant to buy more at these levels, that is unless you have none...then buy slowly
• Be mindful of your job-casualties of the impending recession through job loss will be in a precarious possition. if this is the case, another reason to hold some cash.
• holders of credit card debt (CCD) will get hurt when interest rates start cranking up. If possible, pay down CCD and/or lock into a fixed rate if at all possible.
• stay flexible nobody knows for sure how this thing will play out. Although a smooth recovery is likely, it is not a sure thing and there are to be sure some bumps in the road to recovery.
• For stocks, stick with companies with little or now debt, good dividends, industries which will be supported by consumers and/or governement spending.

a stock to drink too

a while back i mentioned I was interested in Diageo (DEO) which is the largest maker of spirits in the world (and they own Guiness beer which is how I found out about the company) and here is an update...I think think the logic that in "good times people party and drink. and in bad times they cry and drink...even more..." may work itself out...plus it pays a nice dividend. which is another bonus in hard times.

i think the most interesting thing with stock markets and financial markets is you can participate in trends that span the glode...you can join the game...

in d trini

So I am travelling in Trinidad and Tobago and just got back from Tobago...the resort and undeveloped island of this two island nation....and it was d best!

so much great food...something called 'bake and shark' is delightful...

it's nice to travel outside of the 'developed world' again...it's always refreshing to get a change of perspective.

The author's note

So the author of 'Gone and Back Again' wrote me back and he's a really nice guy as well as immensely talented. Which makes me appreciate his work even more...humility is definitely a value I value. Speaking of which, I really enjoyed the book since it's about people finding (or not finding) their values in life.


Anyway, here's what he wrote:


Thanks for the kind words. Really. I feel so much for Caley, it's nice to hear when someone else does to. I agree that what he doesn't know about himself is that he is tough. In fact, he so frequently thinks the opposite.


And I'd love to write another book. I've even got the title and storyline.


As for Bilbo's tale, yeah, his is a journey not unlike Bilbo's, so there're numerous references, some obvious, some less so, throughout the book. If you ever get the gumption, please write up a little review for Amazon, because it really does help other readers understand what the books about, especially when it comes from people just like them.


No matter what, though, you were very, very kind to write and I'm just so glad that my book interested you.


Thanks so much... Jonathon

Writing the Author

From time to time I write somebody famous and sometimes I hear back. I've written Jim Rogers, whose famous for calling the boom in commodity markets and writing books with word play in the titles...as in "Investment Biker" and "Adventure Capitalist". The only thing I remember from emailing him was him writing, "Unbelieveable..."

I wrote to the Author of "Gone and Back Again". Here's what I wrote:

Mr. Fuqua,

I just finished your latest book and thoroughly enjoyed it! It is a rare book that I pick up and actually get past the first few pages. But yours captured me and had me enthralled to the last page...thank you for writing it.

I'm sorry, but have to ask you a few questions/comments if you have time to respond:

• I like the title's reference to Bilbo's tale, "There and Back Again". Would I be pushing things to think of other references to The Hobbit?
• I am hoping you consider additional novels following Caley through his life. I'd be sad indeed if this is the end of the line. Cay, although he didn't realize it, was a tough kid. I'd like to see how he grows up.

Once again, thank you. Congratulations on the book!

And he wrote back! which was cool of him...he didn't have to do that...

gone and back again

Sorry for the hiatus...but I'm on holiday in the Caribbean. Very relaxing. It's nice to have time again. time to read. Just finished a great book: Gone and Back Again by Jonathon Scott Fuqua.

I recommend it highly. consider it added to the reading list. the reading list is actually a reminder to myself of books to reread, since I find books I can actually get through a tough thing. Any Dan Brown book I find atrocious. I tried Digital Fortress and 'the angel' books...and even the davinci code...but all were a slog...a slog for the first 3o pages!

I used to feel bad 99% of books I put down after 30 pages, then 20 pages and now 2 sentences...but now I see it saves me a lot of time...

I consumer

I just about fell over out of my chair this morning with laughter about the state of the economy (yes, only i find this stuff funny...) when i saw an advertisement from Circuit City for 36 months of no interest on TV purchases.

That's THREE years of no interest!

The American consumer is being subsidized (i.e. cheap credit and tax refunds of $600) to buy just as farmers or the sugar industry are subsidized. [I always heard (whether true or not) that farmers were subsidized to grow or not grow certain crops.]

WE, the consumers of America, are living in a golden age of free stuff my friends...so buy like there's no tomorrow...run, don't walk to you nearest Best Buy, Circuit City and other purveyors of hi-tech junk!

I suggest you maximize the use of 'consumer subsidies' for wealth generation and lifestyle enhancement...and why not...the world is counting on you! It is essentially your role...your job...in this global economy to consume.

Just be prepared for the fallout...and then you can sit back, relax and watch the whole thing play out on your interest-free credit purchased HDTV...

bigger body

In high school i was on the swim team and weighted 185 lbs. For the past 10 years i've been trying to lose weight and become a lightweight. Always counting calories. Always trying to run.

I think body physiques are just as trendy as hem lines, and I was caught in the body type hype. "Thin is in", as opposed to the bulking up body building physiques that were more en vogue when I was in high school.

I've recently, however, been doing at least 100 push ups a day along with dips and pull ups. I've notice my muscle mass increasing. It feels good. The feeling of 'Feeling more solid'. I've been running but only about 15 minutes a day along with a little biking to and from work. I've also noticed my weight stabilizing without me having to count calories!

So i've realized the natural trajectory of my body is to put on muscle rather than lose fat. I've been struggling against my body's natural inclination for the past 10 years...it's amazing, how hard it is to change our perception on something once we get an idea in our heads.

And now i have the idea in my head to get a cheap weight bench on craigslist...i'm excited to get bigger...

defensible position

i have had a lot of thoughts about what to break my 'radio silence' with, but i suppose preparing for the coming recessionary storm (which is very timely given we are experiencing some pretty intense weather storms as well) is the most important...this article is a good place to start.

grab your booties...

it seems the chill of stagflation is in the air...

"okay Santa...what i want for Christmas is...well let me just show you...

I was just reading in the NY Times that a fashion executive was traveling in Morocco and gave a street beggar a crumpled up $1.00 bill. She looked at the crushed piece of paper, threw it back at the American exclaiming, "What is this? This is worth nothing!"

If that doesn't say buy gold I don't know what does!

If we are going to survive...we're going to have to get a little crazy...

a look back at the evolution of dance

I just read in businessweek about a move toward professionally produced videos for the internet now. Which is a move away from the amateur based productions. Which goes hand in hand with my latest behavior which has been watching the show 'lost'. We've been renting it on netlfix but the newest episode does not come out on DVD until Dec 11. It is available for free, however, on ABC. So it seems content owners will be putting forth their own content without the need for special distributors...it's great...the internet really has shaken things up...

but the article talked about a great video which was popular about a year ago. I never saw it...yes, i'm slow...if haven't seen it yet...check it out:

quick oats

I remember about 10 years ago trying to find 'steel cut oats' and having a really difficult time doing so. At the time, the product seemed like an exotic relic from days long gone...like a cotton gin...or a dial up computer...

But I just had breakfast and ate steel cut oats produced by the cereal Goliath 'quaker oats'. It seems a concern about being left behind in the steel cut oats market pushed the company to start offering the product. I bought it at Target.

I often blame corporations for creating the society that we currently live it. But perhaps they are just giving us what we want?

Or at least what we think we want...

warning: falling dollars ahead

Are you concerned about the falling dollar? Does it mean anything to you and me?

It does if prices have to get jacked up in order for companies to keep up with the declining value of the American currency. This is if inflation takes hold. We have not seen this hit us yet, because the fall in the dollar has been so swift.

For instance, take note of how the pricing difference on book covers regarding the Canadian dollar and the US dollar. Even though the Canadian dollar, or loonie, has achieved parity with the dollar these book covers have maintained the same pricing structure, which must be based on historical values. If the difference in currency pricing exists for a while, I suppose it's a matter of time before the methods used to determine these pricing structures catch up.

so is the falling dollar a concern to you and me? In this case, you just have to tell by the books cover...at least its price...

fortune cookie jokie

looking back, I only wish I didn't have so many regrets.

biPolar Barely

remember just about every child on the swing set 10 years ago had attention deficit disorder?

Apparently, now the mental illness de jur is bipolar disorder. And bipolar has more pricey drugs...

Mental illness works great for goosing profits for drug companies...and it keeps people thinking there is something wrong with them if they don't 'fit' the social mold...so it keeps people in line as well...

It's funny, because evolution works when it throws out concepts and ideas that fall outside of what everybody is...when it tries out new ideas...some work...some don't...

mental illness is one of those attempts by nature to force us to evolve...it's trying new things...and we label it as 'wrong' or 'incorrect' when in actuality, it's nature working...

eatwatch online

a great application gets better...eatwatch is online now!

http://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/online/hdo.html

rummaging through the attic

I am reposting old posts I took off line because it thought I was going 'in a new direction'...

New direction?

I've heard that life is lived forwards, but understood backwards. So i'm rereading old posts to understand my backwards life...

I don't see any reason why you shouldn't look backwards with me...

it's fun...