a definition is nigh

okay, "nigh" means "near"...in case you were wondering or never knew...or just didn't care but read this blog anyhow....

so it seems the US government is going to save us all from the bad investments of the few and/or the stupid or both. 

What's going to happen?

• If you own a home, it seems your house value will be supported and propped up.  This also helps the govt by soaking up all those dollars out there...this is a case of "dollars dollars everywhere and not a penny to lend...".  The world is awash in us dollars but everyone is clinging to them because of fear.
• the next phase of fear will kick in and people will start scrambling to dump their dollars for gold.  that's where this bubble leads next...'the bubble to end all bubbles' will be a bubble in gold prices.  as investors, small and large, realize the us government is destroying the value of the dollar and in no way can every make good on their debts, there will be a flight to gold...thus driving up prices...
• housing prices will continue to skyrocket, but this time, not because people think they will get rich, but only because the dollar is plummeting.  if you have a 30 year fixed mortgage, you'll be able to pay the house off in full with a few tokens of gold...
• the US will recover, but it will be about 5 to 10 years of recovery.  the 'old-new value based economy' will be based on a gold standard again.  this time leveraged with the efficiency of the Internet.  think gold, PayPal and carbon credits (a whole new market will emerage) all combined...
• the plus of all of this lowering of the American quality of life is...the US will once again be a good value for manufacturing versus other places in the world.  the US will be able to compete with China on labor costs and good manufacturing jobs will start returning to US shores.  while Google is cool, it just doesn't doesn't generate jobs the way manufacturing wire hangers does...

long term, this is good for the average Joe.  this is the point at which the overworked leader (the US) realizes they are past their prime, need help and hand the reins to somebody else...rejoice America, our time is up...maybe now you'll be able to take some of that vacation time...you'll probably stay local on a 'stay-cation' and watch maybe the most exciting thing you've ever seen on your world-wide jaunts...a community developing right around you...

the end is nigh...

I always thought the guys walking around with "the end is nigh" were nuts...(what does 'nigh' even mean?) but guess what folks?

The End is NIGH...

With what is happening in the US Economy and how the US has bungled the management of the world's reserve currency, the end is near for the US dollar as the world reserve currency. How can the rest of the world ever trust the US government again?

So what does this mean for you and me and the average joe six pack?

There is the debate if the end will come in deflationary terms or inflationary..."for twenty points, i'm going to go with inflationary bob..."

Yes, Joe will be paying 20 dollars for his six pack (that's twenty bucks for a six pack of bud...the american...er...belgian beer)

Yes, interest rates are going to skyrocket...

Lock in interest rates now...

Chinese banks buying morgan stanley...

This whole situation is such a joke...who could believe...

more later...what fun!

dollar daze over

the fear we are experiencing now in the financial markets is the fear of not knowing how bad things will get.

I'm thinking this is the end of the dollar. After this calamity...after this display of ineptitude of the highest magnitude on the heals of a flawless display of chinese teamwork at the olympics, who is going to have faith in the dollar as the world's reserve currency ever again? The sun is setting on the dollar...just too bad sunset are suppose to be beautiful..this is just pathetic.

thing is, no where is safe. the harder other economies fall, the more swiftly they will move away from a dollar based world economy. the days of the single world currency are over...

settle in folks...the storm is just getting started...let's look to floridians for motivation...they have some experience with weathering storms...

personal transportation

I'm going to get a folding bike...the bromptons are really nice folding bikes. There is a lot of informaton in the blogosphere regarding all the different types of folding bikes.

I want the freedom to take my bike everywhere, the brompton is small enough when folded to allow me that.

They are really well made.

The are really not cheap...ouch...but much cheaper than a car.

political action garden

bascially, no matter what you do for a living, you are a politician...

I'm in a community garden and i was talking to a woman in the garden today. She was telling me about some of the previous projects at the garden. She said, "oh yeah, blah blah blah was going to do this, that and the other thing. But he ended up quiting the garden."

She went on...

"Oh, that was going to be done by Mr. X, but he left the garden..."

And the thing is, it's a really cool garden. With cool people.

I think it's just that anything, no matter how cool something is, there's always a political component to it.

At work you deal with it. Put up with it. Complain about it. But you stay, because you have to. Because of a thing called a paycheck...

So anyway, no matter what you do...your a politician. Only without the perks...go figure...

squeekie kleen

this guys rocks...burger king screwed up...they should have made this guy a great character in their ads!

watch this video:


and then this one:

no foot note

Okay,

Here's a new post just to get those ugly feet off the opening screen.

It's simple, I think China's economy is a bubble and will burst after the olympics...let's see what happens...

a fetish demystified

Some guys are breast men...some leg men...other men are men of the feet...

The foot fetish...

I often wondered why the female foot is an object of such admiration and beauty to some of us...then it hit me...I squandered one of my few epiphanies in life on why men like women's feet (at least cute ones...)...oh well...

men have evolved to pay attention to women with healthy...that is cute or sexy...feet because no matter how great a women is, if she can't move she's useless...she can't outrun predators, she can't forage for food and she can't protect offspring effectively...

I always thought a man created the high heel. But apparently the Catherine de'Medici was dimunitive and wanted to gain stature...not just in the social sense. So men...relax...enjoy the feet and the high heels, for there is not guilt here...blame Catherine.

(for insights into the high heels effect on the body click here)

apocolypse later

SELL THE HOUSE
SELL THE CAR
SELL THE KIDS
FIND SOMEONE ELSE
FORGET IT
I'M NEVER COMING BACK
FORGET IT

A great scene in a great movie. I focus on the 'sell the car' part...which i did.

Have you seen oil prices?

The gasoline powered automobile is going the way of the music cd. the high tech wonder that was replaced with the barely had it's 15 minutes when it was shown the eject button....

I remember selling a bunch of my music cds...realizing they were on the way out. downloaded music now outsells cds...and cd sales are declining...i suppose i over-anticipated the fade out of the cd, and i probably overshot the mark with selling my car (it's almost a year i've been car free) but it's a matter of time before there is a glut of cars on the market...

and a lot of other things on the market as well...

"golf clubs anyone?"

i often thought that you would have to be really lucky (or unlucky) to live during a time of a major realignment or shift in the 'system'. but i'm starting to think that it's not that unusual. things happen really, really, really fast...especially when some momentum gets going. look how quickly the soviet union fell...enron evaporated overnight...and us...the american empire...is it unwinding?

i'd say the latest in cia torture protocols sums it up...

i'm not overly sympathetic with humanitarians, or too soft or leaning too far to the left...but i think just logically, a person only takes drastic measures, like torture, when they sees no other avenue left...when possiblities are running out...when they are getting desperate...

so i think we are really experiencing somthing here.. something big actually...

so you'd be wise to listen to kurtz...and sell the car...sell the house...but instead of selling the kids...buy something of real worth...

funny @!#^@#

a friend recommended this on the "o crap that funny" factor...

one more reason...

when you think about it, the amount of time we hold to be the historic norm through our personal experiences and those we've read about is actually very short. So, while gold prices seem to be very expensive, i ask, "In comparison to what?" in comparison to 5 years ago, 20 years ago? I don't know...

But I do know, this is one more reason that our past looks less like our future, however, if you go back far enough, gold has held value far before the dollar was even an idea...

enjoying what you don't understand

believe it or not, Natasja Saad, is singing in enlish in the song below. Listen a few times, enjoy the song and try and guess what she is saying...after you give up...here are the lyrics...to me the song is great and you can't help but move to it...enjoy it. Enjoy it even though you have no idea what she's saying...but you want to learn what she's saying...

phase change

this is a great opportunity to watch as the tide turns. remember these moments, b/c in 10 years you'll be thinking, "how did we get here?":

bearly there

Been out of the loop for a while...got back from the relaxing world of Trini...got the flu...realized i still had to work for a living...

it took bear stearns overnight evaporation to spur me into actually posting something again...posting something lazily, becuase this is all i'm going to write about it...i'm a bit concerned about the speed of the collapse which makes me wonder how solid the foundation is of this mortgaged house of cards...but read for yourself...

on d edge

Greenspan thinks we are 'on the edge of a recession'. He thinks housing has to hit bottom.

Here's what's going to happen:

The fed will contiue to aggressively cut interest rates. the thinking is, as long as housing prices are falling, then inflation is not a concern. once housing does bottom out and shows signs of stabilizing (maybe within 2 to 3 years) then the fed will fight a fight it knows how to fight...the inflationary fight.

The Fed will clamp down on credit availability in an effort to snuff out inflation. This will require a major tick up in the interest rates.

An increase in inflation from primarily food and fuel, and the corresponding increase in interest rates will solve the problem of excess liquidity (too many dollars floating around) as well provided those holding dollars with a greater return on their dollar holdings (China).

In this scenario, inflation is the fed's friend, and it will do nice work of bringing the the higher costs of house ownership down.

It should play out relatively painlessly for most. However, here are potential pitfalls:

• large holders of dollars stand to lose through the loss of purchasing power (prices are going up but collecting less on your cash position). Have some cash to be flexible. Cash is essentially stored energy which you have to put to use. If you are counting on cash as a source of income you may want to consider a part time job.
• Hold some commodities to offset the loss of purchasing power of your dollars. commodities have had quite a run, and i would be hesitant to buy more at these levels, that is unless you have none...then buy slowly
• Be mindful of your job-casualties of the impending recession through job loss will be in a precarious possition. if this is the case, another reason to hold some cash.
• holders of credit card debt (CCD) will get hurt when interest rates start cranking up. If possible, pay down CCD and/or lock into a fixed rate if at all possible.
• stay flexible nobody knows for sure how this thing will play out. Although a smooth recovery is likely, it is not a sure thing and there are to be sure some bumps in the road to recovery.
• For stocks, stick with companies with little or now debt, good dividends, industries which will be supported by consumers and/or governement spending.

a stock to drink too

a while back i mentioned I was interested in Diageo (DEO) which is the largest maker of spirits in the world (and they own Guiness beer which is how I found out about the company) and here is an update...I think think the logic that in "good times people party and drink. and in bad times they cry and drink...even more..." may work itself out...plus it pays a nice dividend. which is another bonus in hard times.

i think the most interesting thing with stock markets and financial markets is you can participate in trends that span the glode...you can join the game...

in d trini

So I am travelling in Trinidad and Tobago and just got back from Tobago...the resort and undeveloped island of this two island nation....and it was d best!

so much great food...something called 'bake and shark' is delightful...

it's nice to travel outside of the 'developed world' again...it's always refreshing to get a change of perspective.

The author's note

So the author of 'Gone and Back Again' wrote me back and he's a really nice guy as well as immensely talented. Which makes me appreciate his work even more...humility is definitely a value I value. Speaking of which, I really enjoyed the book since it's about people finding (or not finding) their values in life.


Anyway, here's what he wrote:


Thanks for the kind words. Really. I feel so much for Caley, it's nice to hear when someone else does to. I agree that what he doesn't know about himself is that he is tough. In fact, he so frequently thinks the opposite.


And I'd love to write another book. I've even got the title and storyline.


As for Bilbo's tale, yeah, his is a journey not unlike Bilbo's, so there're numerous references, some obvious, some less so, throughout the book. If you ever get the gumption, please write up a little review for Amazon, because it really does help other readers understand what the books about, especially when it comes from people just like them.


No matter what, though, you were very, very kind to write and I'm just so glad that my book interested you.


Thanks so much... Jonathon

Writing the Author

From time to time I write somebody famous and sometimes I hear back. I've written Jim Rogers, whose famous for calling the boom in commodity markets and writing books with word play in the titles...as in "Investment Biker" and "Adventure Capitalist". The only thing I remember from emailing him was him writing, "Unbelieveable..."

I wrote to the Author of "Gone and Back Again". Here's what I wrote:

Mr. Fuqua,

I just finished your latest book and thoroughly enjoyed it! It is a rare book that I pick up and actually get past the first few pages. But yours captured me and had me enthralled to the last page...thank you for writing it.

I'm sorry, but have to ask you a few questions/comments if you have time to respond:

• I like the title's reference to Bilbo's tale, "There and Back Again". Would I be pushing things to think of other references to The Hobbit?
• I am hoping you consider additional novels following Caley through his life. I'd be sad indeed if this is the end of the line. Cay, although he didn't realize it, was a tough kid. I'd like to see how he grows up.

Once again, thank you. Congratulations on the book!

And he wrote back! which was cool of him...he didn't have to do that...

gone and back again

Sorry for the hiatus...but I'm on holiday in the Caribbean. Very relaxing. It's nice to have time again. time to read. Just finished a great book: Gone and Back Again by Jonathon Scott Fuqua.

I recommend it highly. consider it added to the reading list. the reading list is actually a reminder to myself of books to reread, since I find books I can actually get through a tough thing. Any Dan Brown book I find atrocious. I tried Digital Fortress and 'the angel' books...and even the davinci code...but all were a slog...a slog for the first 3o pages!

I used to feel bad 99% of books I put down after 30 pages, then 20 pages and now 2 sentences...but now I see it saves me a lot of time...